Wednesday, October 2, 2013

FDI SPILLOVERS AND GROWTH IN AFRICA: THE ROLE OF LOCAL FINANCIAL MARKETS - Research

LONDON METROPOLITAN BUSINESS SCHOOL


ECONOMICS SUBJECT GROUP



FDI SPILLOVERS AND GROWTH IN AFRICA: THE ROLE OF LOCAL FINANCIAL MARKETS.





PHILIP KOKU VIENYO AKPAKLI




17th MAY, 2013




   This project is submitted in part fulfillment of the requirement for the completion of MSc International Economics and Finance at London Metropolitan University. The work is the sole responsibility of the candidate.

This is an extract of the main paper...

ABSTRACT




   The purpose of this paper is to examine the various links among foreign direct investment, financial markets and growth in Africa over the last two decades (1991 – 2011). The work is based on a model developed by Alfaro et al. (2004) which presents an economy with a continuum of agents indexed by their level of ability. Agents have two choices: they can work for the foreign company in the FDI sector and use their wealth to earn a return or they can choose to undertake entrepreneurial activities, which are subject to a fixed cost. Better financial markets allow agents in the economy to take advantage of knowledge spillovers from FDI. The empirical evidence suggests that FDI plays an important role in contributing to economic growth in Africa. However, the level development of local financial markets is crucial for these positive effects to be realized.




1.     INTRODUCTION

This study will examine the various links between foreign direct investment (FDI), local financial markets and economic growth in Africa. According to the World Bank, FDI measures the net inflow of investment to acquire a lasting management interest (10 percent or more of voting stock) in an enterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor. It is the sum of equity capital, reinvestment of earnings, other long-term capital, and short-term capital as shown in the balance of payment[1].
Over the last decade, developing countries have increasingly offered incentives to attract foreign firms to their economies. This is because economists and policy makers agree that FDI can have important positive effects on a host country’s development. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, FDI can be a source of valuable technology and know-how while fostering linkages with local firms, which can help jump-start an economy.
Domestic firms may benefit from accelerated diffusion of new technology if foreign firms introduce new products or processes to the domestic market. In some cases, domestic firms might benefit just from observing these foreign firms (Blomstrom and Kokko, 1997). In other cases, technology diffusion might occur from labour turnover as domestic employees move from foreign to domestic firms. These benefits together with the direct capital financing it provides, suggest that FDI can play an important role in modernizing the national economy and promote growth.
The empirical evidence on FDI’s impact on a host country’s growth is, however, ambiguous at both micro and macro levels (Havranek and Irsova 2010; Görg and Greenaway, 2004; Lipsey 2002). According to Blomström and Kokko (2003), spillovers are not automatic since local conditions have an important effect in influencing firms’ adoption of foreign technologies and skills. Lipsey, (2002) also argues that there is a need for more research on different circumstances that obstruct or promote these spillovers. We wish to add to the existing knowledge on the subject by giving a special attention to local conditions in the African region, especially, the role of local financial institutions in channelling the potential FDI spillovers to promote economic growth.
While FDI can contribute to the development efforts of a country, domestic market conditions are crucial in determining not only the quantity but also the quality of FDI. These conditions include (but are not limited to) the policy environment of the local country, productive assets available, and infrastructure. Among these conditions, the development of local financial markets in particular can adversely limit the economy’s ability of taking advantage of such potential FDI spillovers (Alfaro et al., 2000).
The rest of this paper is organised as follows. Section 2 presents an overview of global FDI inflows, as well as, the trend of FDI and growth in some selected African countries. In section 3, we will discuss some history of financial development in Africa, highlight some challenges to financial markets development in the region and prescribe solutions to these challenges. Thereafter, we will discuss the general composition of Africa’s financial sector. Section 4 contains a review of the literature on FDI spillovers, growth and the role financial markets. In section 5, we build a conceptual framework. Section 6, will discuss the data that will be employed in the study. In Section 7, we will discuss our results and empirical analysis. We conclude in section 8.
2.   FDI INFLOWS AND GROWTH IN SOME SELECTED AFRICAN COUNTRIES

This section delves briefly into a description of observed trends in FDI inflows around the world. We will also discuss the trend of FDI inflows in some selected African countries and examine how these economies have performed in recent years.

2.1.             FDI Inflows in a Global Context
Figure 1 below, shows that global FDI inflow declined significantly from 2008 due to the global financial crisis. The rise in inflows of about 45 percent in 2007, declined drastically to about negative 10 percent in 2008. In 2009, FDI inflows fell further to an all-time low of about negative 47 percent[1]. FDI inflows surpassed their pre-crisis average in 2011, despite turmoil in the global economy, but remained about 23 percent short of the 2007 peak[2]
 
 

   Source: Culled from World Bank data:

With respect to global FDI inflows to the various regions in the world, Europe and Central Asia received the greatest share of global FDI inflows, about 49 percent in 2006 through to about 32 percent in 2011. East Asia and Pacific countries also received a significant share of global FDI inflows. Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, however, received the lowest FDI inflows from 2006 to 2010. In 2011, however, South Asia countries received the lowest FDI inflows.
The trend of global FDI inflow is clearer when countries are classified into income groups, Table 1 shows the share of global FDI inflows. From the table it is evident that FDI inflows to high income countries were over 60 percent on average from 2006 to 2011. Low income countries received an average of about 0.71 percent of the global FDI inflow in the same period. The intuition which appears fairly clear is that FDI flows to countries with high incomes than to low income countries.

Table 1: Share of Global FDI net inflows (in percent)


 REGIONS
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
East Asia and Pacific
16.55
15.77
17.53
24.38
34.75
31.24
Europe and Central Asia
49.19
53.19
47.95
38.95
22.39
32.04
Latin America and Caribbean
5.44
6.16
7.34
9.32
10.84
10.40
Middle East and North Africa
5.09
3.73
4.96
7.49
5.51
3.33
North America
21.19
18.63
18.13
13.45
22.04
18.28
South Asia
1.52
1.32
2.32
3.41
2.30
2.20
Sub-Saharan Africa
1.02
1.21
1.78
3.00
2.17
2.52
World
100
100
100
100
100
100







Least developed countries
0.66
0.58
0.81
1.43
1.26
1.16
OECD members
70.15
71.50
65.14
51.63
44.31
51.50
Euro area
22.38
27.35
20.46
23.43
9.57
19.69
European Union
40.64
44.91
40.0
26.91
13.81
25.08







High income
76.58
77.02
70.7
62.57
55.73
60.29
Low income
0.31
0.39
0.52
0.81
1.11
1.13
Middle income
23.12
22.59
28.78
36.62
43.16
38.58
Source: Culled from World Bank Data


2.2.             Trend of FDI Inflows and Growth in Selected African Countries
Africa has experienced significant and persistent growth over the last decades and analysts predict the entire African continent will grow at over 5 percent in the next five years (World Bank 2012). It is also important to point out that Ghana experienced one of the highest GDP growths in the world of over 14 percent in 2011.  Most of the selected African countries in figure 2 below, experienced higher average GDP growth than the World’s average of about 2.7 percent from 1990 to 2011. Sub-Saharan Africa had an average GDP growth of about 3.5 percent in the same period. Cote d’Ivoire and Zimbabwe have low growths partly because of recent civil unrests in those countries.
In figure 3, the chart tracks the trend of economic growth and FDI inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole over the last two decades. From a growth rate of 1.2 percent in 1990, the region achieved an impressive 4.2 percent growth in 2011, despite the global economic slowdown. Though the share of FDI inflows to the continent is still relatively low compared to the rest of the world, the last decade has also seen some significant increases, from around 0.42 percent in 1990 to over 3 percent in 2011. 


Source: Culled from World Bank Data:

Individual country analysis show similar trends, for example, FDI inflows to Ghana have increased from about 0.25 percent of GDP in 1990 to about 9.5 percent of GDP in 2008. Inflows decreased slightly from 2009 due to the global financial crisis and in 2011 it was about 8.2 percent of GDP. Ghana’s economy has been growing steadily in relation with of this new influx of money into the economy. From about 3.3 percent in 1990, the economy grew to about 14.4 percent in 2011 as shown in figure 4. Uganda, like Ghana, has experienced steady increases in FDI inflows over the last two decades, from as low as negative 0.1 percent of GDP in 1990 to 6.6 percent of GDP in 2007. Like many countries the global financial crisis caused a reduction in FDI inflows to Uganda from 2008 and in 2011 inflows were about 4.7 percent of GDP. The economy of Uganda however, went through phases of relatively high and low growths but on average economic growth was over 6.5 percent annually. Figure 5 charts Uganda’s FDI inflows and economic growth from 1990-2011.
Zambia and Namibia has also followed similar patterns generally with respect to FDI inflows and economic growth as can be seen in figure 6 and figure 7. The last ten years especially has been very favourable to Africa in terms of economic growth. If the continent continues on this path of growth, which is higher than the rate the rest of the world is growing, it will not be long before it will catch up with the developed counties. This is consistent with Solow (1956) model, which predicts long run convergence and states that countries that start from a lower level of output will grow faster and will catch up with richer countries.
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
3.   FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA

In this section a brief background of the financial sector in Africa is discussed. Thereafter, challenges to financial sector development in the region are identified and explained. We will prescribe some solutions to these challenges. Lastly we will discuss the general composition of the financial sector in the region.

3.1.             Background
Africa continues to lag behind other regions of the world in terms of financial sector development and regional integration. No active interbank market activities or significant capital flows normally take place within the continent. In order to analyse the reasons behind this situation, it is important first to note that Africa is a very large continent with a variety of economies and financial sectors at different stages of development. In addition, per capita income is generally low and income distribution skewed.
Financial development in the continent is largely uneven. Countries like Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia in the North and South Africa in the South have reached a relatively high level of sophistication in terms of financial sector services. There is another group that is witnessing a steady expansion of the financial sector (Botswana, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia). The remaining countries lag considerably behind, especially those that are recovering from years of social unrest and hostilities (Angola, Chad, Congo DR, Cote d’Ivoire, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Liberia, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone). Lastly, Zimbabwe, which used to have a solid base for strong financial sector development has gradually witnessed rapid regression for various reasons, including weak macro policies that have led to a prolonged bout of hyperinflation (Russo and Ugolini, 2008).
To understand better the unevenness of financial sector development in Africa, it may be helpful to recall briefly the history of the continent, in particular Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this region, formal banking began with the establishment of “colonial banks”. These were mostly interested in providing services to colonial enterprises engaged in mining and manufacturing. They were also used as captive banks to finance growing public sectors. Following independence in the 1960’s, most colonial banks were nationalized and a number of development banks created in particular to finance the agricultural sector. Owing to the then prevailing political ideologies, government intervention and protectionism became the key policies. Banks were largely devoted to channel resources to the Government and preferential sectors. Central banks were assigned responsibility for credit allocation and economic development rather than safeguarding monetary stability. Moreover they were given very little independence in conducting monetary policy and remained subordinated to the Finance Ministry, as in the colonial period. Assessment of risk and efficiency of bank credits was not made according to the prevailing best practices and no effective banking supervision and enforcement were put in place.
In a matter of years, the banking sector collapsed in several African countries burdened by nonperforming loans, many of which were made to politically connected individuals and companies. Most development banks were closed leaving a legacy of large outstanding debts on the books of the banking sector and ultimately of the central bank and the government.
A few additional important points deserve to be highlighted in the history of Africa’s financial sector. With the exception of the CFA monetary area, the banking sector in most countries was focused on domestic needs only and there was no vision to create regional markets in order to benefits from economies of scale and develop inter-country exchanges.
The legacy of different colonial roots (the English Common Law and the French Civil Code) that are at the basis of the legal structures in Africa, can also explain some cross-country differences in financial sector development. The main difference between the two legal systems lies on their ultimate purpose and objective. The English Common Law, which influenced the Former British colonies, wanted to protect citizens from abuses by the State. Thus, it gave flexibility to judges and facilitated trade and exchanges between private citizens and enterprises. The Civil Code, which influenced the former French, Belgian, and Portuguese colonies, tended instead to protect citizens from abuses by powerful property holders and to solidify State power over private citizens.

3.2.             Financial Sector Composition in Africa
The financial sector in Africa is dominated by commercial banks. Non-bank financial institutions (NBFI’s) and Microfinance (MFI’s) are gradually growing and only a small group of countries have a stock exchange. Banks hold more than 80 percent of total financial assets, followed by insurance companies, pension funds, and other NBFI’s (Russo and Ugolini, 2008). Interbank market transactions are very limited and largely confined to within branches of large foreign owned banks. In some countries, postal offices play an important role in collecting deposits from remote areas.
As a proxy measure of the state of development of the financial sector, bank assets as a percentage of GDP vary across countries in line with income levels and stage of development. They range from the high levels of Morocco (90 percent), South Africa (87 percent) and Egypt (68 percent) to the lower levels of Cameroon (12 percent), Malawi and Uganda (16 percent) and Zambia (17 percent).
          On the insurance side, South Africa is the most dominant with assets of 28% of GDP. Botswana follows with about 18 percent. Tunisia has the least insurance company Assets as a percentage GDP of about 0.9 percent. With respect to private credit by banks and other financial institutions as a percentage of GDP, the range is from a high of 146 percent for South Africa to as low as 10 percent for Cameroon.  Morocco has the highest liquid liabilities as a percentage of GDP of about 100 percent while the lowest is about 19 percent for Uganda. These are shown in Table 2
The share of foreign-owned banks has increased in recent years. Following several banking failures of government owned banks in most SSA countries, governments have opened doors to new capital and attracted foreign banks. Only in Algeria, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Togo the banks are still mainly government owned (Table 3). In Angola, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia there are both private and public banks operating Old colonial banks or their descendants have quickly returned, but noteworthy is the appearance of South African banks and some other large international banks such as Citibank.
            A comparison of the financial market structure with other regions shows that South Africa and some North African countries are comparable to other emerging markets while SSA, in general lags considerably behind (table 4).
 
Table 2.  Financial Sector Depth for Selected African Countries in 2009
Countries
Bank assets       (% of GDP)
Insurance Companies Assets                (% of GDP)
Private credit by banks and other financial institutions                      ( % of GDP)
Liquid liabilities       (% of GDP)
Angola
32.32
1.46
17.00
30.67
Botswana
31.00
18.71
28.01
54.03
Cameroon
12.07
1.72
10.09
19.95
Cote d'Ivoire
19.35
3.63
16.38
29.87
Ghana
23.76
1.98
14.81
26.31
Kenya
40.13
7.54
28.39
41.04
Malawi
16.10

11.33
21.83
Namibia
51.46
37.35
46.79
51.79
Nigeria
43.52
2.32
35.39
37.70
South Africa
87.53
28.18
146.90
63.58
Swaziland
23.61

22.05
25.85
Uganda
16.25
1.07
11.08
18.95
Zambia
17.98
1.38
12.45
20.82
Algeria
36.50
1.01
15.47
65.85
Egypt, Arab Rep.
68.71
3.17
37.03
80.59
Morocco
90.12
17.96
74.52
100.03
Tunisia
60.68
0.89
58.74
59.46
 

Table 3:  Bank Ownership in Africa
Mainly Government
Mainly Foreign
Mainly Domestic Private
Foreign and Government
Algeria
Botswana
Benin
Angola
Eritrea
Cape Verde
Mali
Burundi
Ethiopia
Central African Republic
Mauritania
Egypt
Togo
Chad
Mauritius
Gabon

Cote d'Ivoire
Morocco
Ghana

Equatorial Guinea
Nigeria
Kenya

Gambia
Rwanda
Rwanda

Guinea Bissau
Somalia
Senegal

Guinea
South Africa
Tunisia

Lesotho
Sudan


Liberia
Zimbabwe


Madagascar



Malawi



Mozambique



Namibia



Niger



Seychelles



Swaziland



Tanzania



Uganda



Zambia


Table 4:  Maghreb Countries: Financial System Structure, 2004
(In percent of total Assets)
Commercial Banks
Specialized banks
Insurance Companies
Pension funds
Other MFI's

State-owned
Private
Total
Algeria
83.4
9.4
92.8

2.8

4.4
Mauritania

88.2
88.2

5

6.8
Morocco
35.3
24.4
59.7
11
10.6
15.6
3.1
Tunisia
30.6
39.1
69.7
3
3.4
6.5
17.4








Korea
6.5
43.2
49.7
22
18.2

10.1
Mexico

50.3
50.3
12.6
7.5
12.7
16.9
Poland
14.3
52
66.3

10.5
10.3
12.9
Portugal
17.6
54.7
72.3
6.8
9
3.8
8.1
Turkey
18.3
39.6
57.9
1.8
0.8
0.6
38.9
Source: Russo and Ugolini (2008)




[1] Data was culled from  the World Bank website: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD

[2] World Investment Report 2012
 

4.1.             Challenges to Financial Development in Africa

It is important to note that despite large differences in the relative size and level of development of African economies, sufficient similarities exist between the underlying economic conditions that face financial institutions in most of the countries to allow several generalizations. In addition to low savings rates, finance in most African countries works within an environment that is extreme in four key dimensions: scale, informality, shocks and governance.  A recent study by the World Bank (Making Finance Work for Africa) has provided a comprehensive assessment of the financial sector in SSA compared with other world regions and identified the areas that need improvement. Although similar difficulties are found elsewhere, the frequency with which this quartet of environmental obstacles meets up together in Africa means that policy analysis in the region has a distinctive flavour. The four key dimensions are discussed as follows.

4.1.1.   Scale
The small scale of many economies does not allow financial service providers to reap scale economies. The small size of African economies is driven not only by the low income level across the continent, but also by the small size of countries. The demand for small transactions (be they savings, insurance, credit, or even simply payments) means that a large part of the population of African economies are not commercially viable customers. The dispersed populations in many African countries make financial service provision outside urban centres cost-ineffective. Despite the increasing trends toward urbanization, large parts of the population in Africa still live in rural areas. The small size of financial systems does not allow financial institutions to recover the fixed costs of basic systems and might undermine competition if the system does not sustain more than a small number of institutions.

4.1.2.  Informality
Informality refers to the status not just of client enterprises of financial intermediaries but also of the markets within which they work; informality reduces the degree to which reliance can be placed on systematic documentation, adherence to a predictable schedule or even a fixed place of business. In large parts of the economy and among economic agents, informality increases the costs and risks for financial institutions and excludes large segments of the population from formal financial services. Many firms and households do not have the necessary formal documentation, such as enterprise registry, land title, or even formal addresses, to access financial services efficiently.

4.1.3.  Shocks
           Not all types of shocks are more severe or more frequent in Africa than elsewhere, but the continent’s history over the past half-century has been marked by a high incidence of occasional economic or political meltdowns (associated with conflict, famine, and politico-societal collapse as well as with external factors) at a frequency of up to one per decade per country (Arnold 2005; Meredith 2005). Shocks in an economy increases costs and undermines risk management. On the individual level, these shocks are related to informality and the consequent fluctuations in income streams among many micro-enterprises and households. This means these agents are less attractive for financial institutions. On the aggregate level, the dependence of many African economies on commodity exports makes economies vulnerable to the large price swings in commodities.

4.1.4.  Governance
Many private and government institutions are plagued with governance problems throughout the continent. This undermines not only the market-based provision of financial services, but also reform attempts and government interventions aimed at fixing market failures. These governance challenges are widespread, ranging from many financial institutions, including banks, microfinance institutions (MFIs), and cooperatives, to government institutions, including development finance institutions.
Governance problems have been at the root of many financial crises on the continent. They also affect directly the ability of financial institutions and markets to manage borrower-specific and systemic risks. The governance challenge and agenda contain a large number of dimensions, from political stability and accountability over the control of graft to the rule of law.

4.2.             Some Prescribed Solutions

The above four characteristics of African finance, call for innovative solutions which can address these challenges and transform the financial sector of the region. Honohan and Beck (2007) identify three phenomena that offer such solutions but also represent pitfalls. These are globalization, regional integration and technology, which will be discussed in turn.

4.2.1.  Globalization
Integration into international financial markets has been an important, but controversial aspect of financial sector policy throughout the world in past decades and even more so after the recent crisis. While most African countries have opened up their financial systems to foreign bank entry, capital account restrictions are still in place in many countries. Capital account liberalization has long been seen as an important component of the modernist Washington-consensus agenda. Yet, the crisis experienced in East Asia and other emerging markets in the 1990’s led to a more cautious approach that focuses more on long-term capital inflows (foreign direct investment), rather than short-term portfolio flows, and that imposes additional safety lines on macroeconomic management. This debate has gained fresh importance during the current attempt of emerging markets to use capital flow restrictions to counter capital inflows from developed markets as a consequence of the quantitative easing policies applied in these countries.

4.2.2.  Regional integration
True, regional integration has been on the agenda of African policy makers since the time when many countries achieved political independence. And, prima facie, there is an enormous potential for Africa in overcoming scale diseconomies by coming together. Not surprisingly, there have been numerous attempts at moving closer toward such cooperation. However, the results have been limited so far. One reason for the limited integration has been political; another is over-ambition, as is obvious from the effort to establish a pan-African currency union; another still is weak implementation. For this reason, focusing on smaller, economically and institutionally more homogeneous sub-regions, such as East Africa, might be more promising than trying to integrate larger sub-regions containing countries at different levels of financial development and with different institutional and legal frameworks.

4.2.3.   Technology
         Technology can help mitigate the scale-related and the risk-related frictions. Technology can help reduce transaction costs, especially the fixed costs component. It can help reduce operational risk as it minimizes the chances of theft and fraud. Financial services via mobile phones offer African financial systems the chance for a transformational banking model by leapfrogging conventional banking models and substantially reducing transaction costs. Moving away from the ‘brick-and-mortar’ model of banking with high fixed costs toward mobile phone technology, where most of the costs are variable, can help overcome dis-economies of scale. For instance, weather insurance built on exogenous indicators can, at low cost, help overcome information asymmetries between those insured and insurance companies.

Globalization, regional integration, and technology offer new opportunities, but also challenges[1]. All three trends will also have an impact on the relative role of the private and public sectors. There will be more space for private service providers to deepen and broaden financial systems, while the public sector has to redefine its role and face new challenges in regulation and supervision.
Globalization, regional integration, and technology will provide new challenges to financial sector regulators. Globalization and regional integration will require closer cooperation between home and host country regulators of cross-border banks in that home and host countries will be increasingly outside the developed world. Technology, especially in mobile financial services, will require closer cooperation between regulators in different sectors, but also a more substantive, but agile regulatory approach. The changes in globalization and the new opportunities that technology provides also raise new challenges for governments.


[1] Details are discussed in Honohan P. and Beck T., (2007); Making Finance Work for Africa. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, Washington.




Philip Akpakli K. V.
Supervisor: Helen O. Solomon
London Metropolitan Business School
London Metropolitan University

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