Africa has more people aged
under 20 than anywhere in the world and the continent's population is set to
double to two billion by 2050.
Two analysts put forward rival
arguments about what this means for the Africa.
Researcher Andrews Atta-Asamoah
believes it poses a major challenge unless properly managed, while economist Jean-Michelle Severino argues it is a massive potential work force
that can drive development.
Jean-Michelle Severino:
"Urbanisation is one of the most
powerful growth engines the world has ever experienced”-
Jean-Michelle Severino
Does demographic growth work for economic growth? Yes.
Or at least, at some specific moments, one of which Africa is experiencing now.
This continent's path is unique in the history of humankind for the speed at which it has enjoyed the growth of its population, and probably, the speed at which it will experience its decline.
For more than 50 years, up to the late 1990s, birth rates exploded in what was an empty continent and the impact on economic growth has been severe.
The weight of the young generation on the shoulders of the relatively few adults dragged down economic growth rates.
Limited domestic demand and lack of infrastructure prevented the growth of strong local markets.
The collapse of raw material prices in the early 1980s created a huge burden of debt for the continent, as well as dependency on aid and raw material exports.
But this is changing.
The decline of fertility rates following a period of rapid
growth presents huge economic opportunities and has started to launch Africa on
a very long-term growth pattern.
This very specific period, known by economists as the
"demographic dividend", is Africa's moment.
Each year, the increasing
number of working-age adults carries the weight of a relatively diminishing
proportion of children, whilst elderly dependents remain few.
This favourable moment is
compounded by the energy of a youthful population.
It is also multiplied by other
important trends, all linked to this specific demographic moment.
Surge in domestic firms
The higher density of the population allows domestic markets to
be created, demand to emerge and local firms to develop in an economic
environment that is more business-friendly than 20 or 30 years ago.
The relative cost of
infrastructure declines.
The proportion of the
population living in cities also increases, with all the productivity gains
this carries.
Urbanisation is one of the most
powerful growth engines the world has ever experienced.
Of course, the impressive
economic growth rates the continent has enjoyed since the turn of the century
are still insufficient to really catch up with high-income countries.
Of course, economic growth in
Africa remains linked to the price of commodities.
That said, many land-locked
countries with few natural resources have enjoyed fast growth in the past
decade - and commodity prices do not entirely explain the surge of domestic
firms that one sees across the continent.
Telecom services and improved education have also played an
important role in boosting the productivity of the economy.
Of course this will have an
end.
There will come a time, which
Europe and Japan are experiencing now and so too will China, when a smaller and
smaller proportion of working-age adults have more and more elderly dependents
to support.
This is an age when economic
growth is more difficult to maintain.
Africa
will enter that time, for sure - but possibly not for another century
Young in Ghana: Case study
Charles Oppong, 25, school graduate, Accra:
I sell car accessories like
safety triangles, mats and car jacks along a motorway. I live with my uncle in
a single room.
The plan is also to mobilise
funds to pay for further studies. I want to become a graphic designer. I have
the basic knowledge; in fact that was my area of study in high school. I make
some art works called mosaics, made of egg shells. I do the designs on my free
days. If I am able to get through my education I think I will make it in less
than five years as a successful graphic designer.
My parents are dead and I was
looked after in an orphanage, which took care of my studies up to senior school
level.
It is very difficult to get a
job as a senior high school graduate. They ask for three to six years'
experience or further qualifications. I have also noticed getting a job is not
about what you know or your qualifications but who you know.
We pray government will expand
the economy and introduce more jobs, especially jobs that can absorb young
people with lower qualifications. I am looking at opportunities to train on the
job.
Andrews Atta-Asamoah:
“Even within a peaceful environment,
a rapidly growing young population presents a major challenge”- Andrews
Atta-Asamoah
Walk into many cyber cafes in West Africa and you will see
scores of young minds running sophisticated counterfeiting schemes aimed at
making money by defrauding innocent people.
They blame unemployment and
lack of opportunities for driving them into entrepreneurial criminality.
Their stories are similar to
those of the young people who wait at secret North African ports for an
opportunity to reach Europe by boat.
They are also similar to those
who have ended up in the ranks of the Somali Islamist group al-Shabab, because
they were promised salaries by their recruiters when there were not any more
conventional job offers.
Such realities illustrate the
threats associated with Africa's growing young population.
Sub-Saharan Africa is a region
where people aged between 15 and 29 will continue to constitute about half of
the population of most countries for the next three to five decades.
Currently, the estimated median
age in sub-Saharan Africa is under 19.
There is a strong case to be made that a young population, or a poorly managed young population, leads to instability and civil conflict.
The terrors of the Mungiki sect in Kenya; al-Shabab's blood-thirsty young fighters in Somalia; the horrors of Boko Haram attacks in Nigeria and the emergence of several Islamist groups in Mali and its neighbours.
These are all groups essentially driven by young people.
The civil wars across West
Africa during the 1990s and early 2000s were also fuelled by disproportionately
young populations with not enough to do and not enough money.
'Lawless enclaves'
Violent crime in South Africa is among the highest in the world,
alongside youth unemployment.
In contexts where the growing
youth population have suffered political exclusion and economic
marginalisation, as was the case with the Arab Spring in North Africa, the
situation can even be a recipe for revolution.
Even within a peaceful
environment, a rapidly growing young population presents a major challenge.
In cities such as Ghana's
capital, Accra, Nairobi in Kenya and Nigeria's economic hub of Lagos, the
impact of the continent's growing young population is noticeable.
Living in the city is fashionable
among young people - but the consequent rural-urban rush has resulted in
unmanaged settlement characterised by mega slums such as Kibera in Nairobi -
home to more than one million people; Sodom and Gomorrah in Accra; and Makoko
in Lagos.
Such settlements are often
lawless enclaves where police presence is limited and service provision an
afterthought.
A growing young population
promises opportunities.
But it is increasingly becoming
clear across Africa that unless political leadership offers young people
something to live for, social stresses such as unemployment can make them easy
prey to those who offer them something to die for.
It is therefore important that
in seeking to harness Africa's demographic dividend, the right leadership and
prudent policies are prioritised.
At the moment, in too many
countries, that is not the case.
Young in South Africa: Case study
Ncebakazi Ngqwane, 25, graduate, Cape Town:
Even though I'm battling to
find a job after completing my diploma in public management two years ago, I am
still confident of finding paid employment soon - I am positive about being
able to make a contribution to the future of my country.
I wanted to do public
management because it deals with all spheres of government, particularly local
government. I've always been interested in working with people and even though
I'm not really into politics, I can easily see myself becoming a politician one
day. For the moment I am working as a paid intern in a provincial government
department.
It is very difficult for young
people to find jobs, which can be demoralising - particularly because I know
I've worked very hard to complete my studies. I think government should do more
by starting projects which will create employment for young people, while also
helping local communities. Most companies are looking for people with
experience so some sort of a youth wage subsidy which would encourage them to
employ young graduates.
I have many friends who studied
with me who are experiencing difficulty in securing work. I also know many
[unemployed] young people, mainly in the townships, who have turned to crime.
Do you think Africa's young population presents an opportunity or a risk for the continent?
I'm a Nigerian living and
working in London. As much as I would like to work in Nigeria the cons of
moving back there greatly outweigh the pros. One of the major factors that kept
me from moving back was employment opportunities. Specifically growth, The amount
of training I get here, I wouldn't be able to get in 10 years in Nigeria. The
youth want to learn and build up the country but the attitude is lazy.
I am very tempted to say that
this is an easy question-more of a no brainer. When I was younger I grew up to
learn that "the future of any country/nation is in the hands of the young
people". These young people were often referred to as "the leaders of
tomorrow". But I really don't see that manifesting anytime soon, I would
raise my hands to say you don't start teaching a child how to talk until he
gets to the required age of speaking! That's a fundamental cause of why our
young population could be a risk instead of being an opportunity. There is so
much limitation, our society doesn't give us an opportunity to dream big dreams
and when we do, it takes almost a lifetime to see a manifestation. With
exception for a few who are related to political leaders.
It could be a great opportunity
if the young do not carry the baggage of their fore parents like blaming
colonialism for everything, they need to let go of all negative thoughts about
the past and embrace the new technology of today, have a can do attitude
believe in themselves. Forget about recent history with your useless leaders
forget about them and do what you can for your self and your community, don't
think about the whole country just think about your community. keep saying
every day that this is our time and tell it to your children from an early age.
Keep repeating the positive history of Africa, do not think of yourselves as
victims. Come on Africa you can do it.
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